“…but i wouldn’t want to live there”
New York has lost nearly 1.4 million residents to the rest of the country since 2010—and largely as a result of this outflow, the Empire State’s total population barely budged during the decade, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest annual update of population estimates. Recent Census Bureau estimates show:
• 180,649 more residents had moved out of New York State than moved in from other states over the previous 12 months.
• New York gained 45,753 foreign immigrants over the previous year—the lowest annual immigrant total since 2010, and the second lowest in at least 58 years. The result was a net migration loss of 134,896 people—the second largest since 1980.
• New York’s cumulative net domestic migration loss of 1,379,210 residents to other states since 2010 was the largest of any state in absolute terms, and second only to Alaska as a percentage of estimated population at the start of the decade.
•The total New York population as of mid-2019 stood at 19,453,561—down by 76,790, or 0.4 percent, from the previous year.
• New York was one of only 10 states to experience a total population decline- in 2018-19—its fourth consecutive annual decrease after five years of growth, and the largest population drop in any state. Only West Virginia, Alaska and Illinois saw their populations fall at a faster percentage rate.
• The Empire State’s population has grown by just 75,459 since 2010—a growth rate of just 0.4 percent, ranking 46th out of 50 states and the District of Columbia.
• The total estimated U.S. population of 328,239,523 was up about 1.6 million, or 0.48 percent, over the 2018 total. Since 2010, the national population has increased by 19,493,985, or 6.3 percent—nearly 16 times the New York rate.
Is it something we said?
Or is it taxes?
The climate upstate?
Insurance costs?
Aging population?
Taxes?
Crime stats?
One party government?
Taxes?
Infrastructure decline?
Schools?
Taxes?
Who can say? It does not augur well for insurers, as risk takers from homeowners to life policy buyers head down south…to live longer. Bored or not………
NAIC’s 2018 Profitability Report contains key ratios on profitability results for the property and casualty insurance countrywide and state by state. The report estimates and allocates profitability in property/casualty insurance by state and by line of insurance.
The ability to analyze results by state and line of business enhances transparency on the financial impact the economic climate has had on each of these lines. When combined with other information, the report can be utilized in further analysis of competition and market performance. The Report includes aggregate data from annual statement exhibits to develop estimates of profits on earned premium and the return on net worth by line and by state.
Some key highlights from the report include:
• Higher than average losses occurred in 2018 in multiple lines of business including commercial auto, homeowners multiple peril, commercial multiple peril, fire, medical professional liability and products liability.
• Return on net worth for homeowners multiple peril was negative for the second consecutive year whereas private passenger auto had a higher than average return on net worth in 2018.
• Mortgage guaranty and financial guaranty, which are relatively volatile lines of business, had lower than average losses and higher than average returns on net worth in 2018.
• Direct premium earned increased by 5.2% to $656 billion in 2018 for all property and casualty lines of business.
• The return on net worth for the total property casualty market increased 3.4 percentage points from 2017, reaching 7.3% in 2018 based on direct figures.
The report also shows the various components of estimated profits including: premiums earned; losses incurred; loss adjustment expense; general expenses; selling expenses; state taxes, licenses and fees; dividends to policyholders; changes in premium deficiency reserves; underwriting profits; investment income and federal income taxes. As fluctuations in calendar year financial results occur, long-term historical averages are also provided. More happy reading.
Happy New Year.
SA
