S&P Market Intelligence releases its annual 2020 Insurance M&A Outlook Analysis

S & P projects a relatively stable level of aggregate deal volume for insurance carrier transactions involving buyers or targets in the US and/or Bermuda. The second-strongest fourth quarter in the last 13 years provides momentum for 2020, but the outlook does not assume a repeat of the $6.3bn New York Life/Cigna group protection transaction from December where a strategic acquirer gained a leading position in a new market through M&A.

 Factors that favor consolidation include the following: strong and growing demand among acquirers for in-force blocks of business; continued interest among prospective sellers in disposing of non-core and/or lower-returning in-force blocks; and the benefits of geographic, distribution and product line diversity.

 Factors that may disfavor M&A include: high relative valuations for specialty lines companies and concerns about targets’ balance sheets, particularly regarding the effects of “social inflation” on reserve adequacy.

 S & P projects an increase in the number of transactions involving US insurance brokers and agencies in part due to uncertainty about future federal capital gains tax policy in a presidential election year.